陈占明;吴施美;马文博;刘晓曼;蔡博峰;刘婧文;贾小平;张明;陈洋;徐丽笑;赵晶;王思亓;

• 1:中国人民大学经济学院
• 2:中国科学院大气物理研究所
• 3:环境保护部环境规划院
• 4:美国东北大学工学院

摘要(Abstract)：

中国不同城市在发展阶段、经济结构、气候条件、人口结构等都存在明显的差异,不同城市二氧化碳排放的主要影响因素及其影响程度也各不相同。本文基于最新的城市尺度二氧化碳排放数据库CHRED及CHRED2.0,通过加入产业结构、城市化和气候差异等因素,对传统STIRPAT模型进行扩展,考察了中国地级以上城市二氧化碳排放的影响因素。结果显示:人口规模、第二产业产值占比和采暖需求的增长都会显著提高一个城市的二氧化碳排放,同时部分城市二氧化碳排放会随着富裕程度的上升呈现先增加后减少的趋势,但城镇化率对二氧化碳排放的影响具有不确定性。从全国样本来看,2005年和2012年人口因素变化对碳排放影响变化较小,维持在0.7左右;气候因素的变化对碳排放的影响从2005年的0.288 1下降为2012年的0.000 2;第二产业产值比重变化的影响从2005年的0.744 2上升到2012年0.979 5;同时碳排放量与人均GDP在2005年存在倒U型关系,但到2012年这种关系不再显著。除了针对全国尺度的分析外,本研究还依据城市人口规模进行分组研究,并在此基础上进一步进行分位数回归,进而识别出不同规模城市二氧化碳排放量的影响因素差异。今后在制定城市节能减排政策对城市二氧化碳排放量进行管理的过程中,决策者需要在把握关键影响因子的前提下依据城市自身特点做到因地制宜、区别对待。

关键词(KeyWords)： 城市二氧化碳排放;影响因素;城市规模;STIRPAT模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“基于消费者责任视角的能源消耗与温室气体排放研究”(批准号:14XNJ011)

作者(Author): 陈占明;吴施美;马文博;刘晓曼;蔡博峰;刘婧文;贾小平;张明;陈洋;徐丽笑;赵晶;王思亓;

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DOI:

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